Sunday, 14 February 2016

Two Down

Sunday, 14 February 2016 00:48
dr_phil_physics: (potus)
Ugh. The Presidential campaign for 2016 has been going on forever -- pretty much the day after the 2012 election. Usually that's hyperbole. Not this time. Lots of campaigning openly in 2014, 2015... at one point at least 16 Republican candidates alone.

I've been composing a commentary piece for a year. It's central thesis hasn't changed. In my opinion, we haven't seen the eventual candidates possibly for either party. I'm expecting one or both conventions to be brokered.

The GOP central forces can't stomach Trump and are worried a strident candidate will lose them the White House. The DNC has to worry about the Anyone But Hilliary and A Socialist Can't Win forces out there.

Debates, which have become sound bite theatre, have been particularly worthless, despite the inordinate number.

And astoundingly, Michael Bloomberg could, in fact, mount a successful independent campaign. He'd need an army to get him on the ballot in fifty states, but he's got a billion dollar war chest in his back pocket, without ever having to waste money and resources or his soul on fund raising. Seriously, he could appeal far more than the other billionaire who has never served in office anywhere.

But...

Shit has finally gotten real.

Some object, no, strenuously object to the First In The Nation duo of the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Damn the demographics, I want the candidates and the reporters to slog through winter fallow corn fields and the rigors of New England weather. Sure, it's not a lot of delegates -- or eventually electoral college votes -- but that's my point. I don't want the first primaries to be in comfortable California and Florida and have the elections sewed up before it begins.

Besides, I like traditions. This is the 100th anniversary of New Hampshire as the first primary. And having the wacky Iowa caucus system which calls on people to stand for their candidate -- love it.

And that's pretty much what I was going to say after two weeks of real and Iowa/New Hampshire in the books.

Except...

Shit got realer tonight.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died.

Jeez, he wasn't on my radar for next justice to leave the bench. I would've put even money on Ginsburg or Kennedy. And yet I was surprised to realize he wasn't in the middle of the pack, but the longest serving member of this iteration of the Court.

Supreme Court nominations had been a back burner issue in this election, figuring the next President could change the composition of the Court.

And this Senate might refuse to approve any candidate until next year.

Shit's gotten real and finally this campaign has an issue.

And as I've said for a year, not here on the blog, I'm not sure either party has seen their candidate emerge.

Dr. Phil

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