Finally...

[dr_phil_physics]

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD

Well, the weather people in West Michigan have been hyping this winter storm for nearly a week. Fact is, nearly every storm which has clobbered the Midwest west of here or clobbered the East Coast repeatedly, has ended up going around West Michigan. Oh sure, right on the lakeshore there have been multiple one- to two-foot snowfalls. But much of the prevailing lake effect bands have been running down Lake Michigan, north to south, and Allendale is located inside the "waist" of Michigan, so we just haven't gotten all that much snow. Alas, it's really been too warm, so we've got a lot of ice.

By Sunday, which started off a beautiful sunny day, the National Weather Service chimed in and issued the first Winter Storm Advisories for Tuesday night and Wednesday -- and the magic word "blizzard" popped out. And the hype machine was on. Storm forecasts of 12"-14" are now 14"-18". And on Tuesday, they moved up the warnings from 7pm to 5pm.

I don't remember where I was on US-131 coming home on Tuesday, but at 5:02pm the snow started. Before that I was just dealing with icy roads and gusty crosswinds. Mrs. Dr. Phil posted on Facebook that "5:10 pm -- home, no sign of snow all day long. 5:27 pm -- OMG! It's snowing sideways, can't see out to the road!"

Yeah, the blizzard is actually here.

Everybody's Doing It

I warned my students that if the storm followed Track A and not Track B, then I probably couldn't make it to K-zoo on Wednesday -- and with drifting might not be able to make it out of the driveway. (grin) By noon, or so, I updated my class webpages and canceled Wednesday's classes and office hours.

Grand Valley State University canceled their evening classes on Tuesday and all classes on Wednesday. Kalamazoo College closed for tomorrow, but part of their campus is on narrow streets on a hill -- I had to go there once after a snow storm, parking was impossible. And Kalamazoo Valley Community College closed early, but KVCC is just off of I-94 and is very exposed and always gets creamed by the snow.

My university? Western Michigan University did what it always does -- posted on their homepage that WMU rarely closes and here's why. They even provided a list of closures:

Weather-related WMU closings since 1999

1999, Jan. 4-5--Heavy snowfall delayed the start of spring semester.
2000, Nov. 21-22--Thanksgiving recess began Tuesday because of snow.
2006, Dec. 1--An ice storm downed trees, caused power outages.
2007, Feb. 5--Extreme cold and snow closed many Michigan colleges.
2008, Feb. 1--WMU closed due to snow.
2009, Dec. 10--Blizzard conditions closed WMU.

Funny thing, about half the time I cancel classes because the forecasts say the roads are for shit, WMU ends up agreeing with me. They've even stayed open when they should've closed and caught hell for it, then canceled classes the next day, which turned out to be not bad at all. Go figure.

However...

Around 10pm WMU bowed to the inevitable:


So along with most of the rest of Michigan's Lower Peninsula, we'll both be having a snow day.

The bad news is that the blizzard conditions will persist to as late as 7pm. With drifting, clearing our 250-foot driveway may not be useful.

Probably need to find someone with a plow to come by once on Wednesday and once on Thursday.

Be safe, all those of you who are in either the snow dump or ice coating zones of this storm.

Dr. Phil

Comments

[albogdan.livejournal.com]

Snow day here as well, but honestly, totally unnecessary. Woke up to plowed streets and sidewalks and not much snow. A rather average snowfall. Looks like the worst of it missed us.

[dr-phil-physics.livejournal.com]

This, of course, is the problem with probabilities and tracking. The snow totals here are just about at the Blizzard of 1978 levels. It doesn't seem as bad, but that may be the perspective of a world with more FWD, 4WD, AWD vehicles.

Not that we're dug out yet, mind you.

Dr. Phil

[kizmet-42.livejournal.com]

Sheesh. All they have to do is ask you when to close, none of this mucking about with weather forecasts.

My son is at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. They're refusing to close unless the power goes out. Idiots.

[dr-phil-physics.livejournal.com]

When the university didn't close over one particularly bad ice storm and there was virtually no traction to be had for love or coefficients of static friction, I wondered how they'd deal with any injuries or deaths amongst the students or faculty. Frankly, I'm glad I didn't find out. But they sure heard about it from people.

Dr. Phil

[dr-phil-physics.livejournal.com]

And yes, I'm pretty proud of my rugged determination to make it in most days, and the confidence to cancel when appropriate -- and have the university agree with me (http://dr-phil-physics.livejournal.com/263717.html):

The funny thing is that storms come, WMU steadfastly maintains that they don't close very often, Dr. Phil reluctantly decides ahead of time to cancel a class due to treacherous roads -- and I swear that someone in the administration either looks at class webpage or my LJ and says, "OMG, Dr. Phil who drives through anything says it's too bad to come in today. We better shut down!". (huge-grin)

Dr. Phil