Dr. Phil's Dreamwidth Journal

Valentine's Day here in Allendale and we're not seeing red -- it's white. Visibility is quite poor outside, with snow and blowing snow and high winds. We've been waiting for the weekend temperature-falling-off-a-cliff for a week. Current forecast for Saturday night is low of -10°F and wind chills down to -23°F -- which is better than the -35°F wind chills they had listed the other day, or the -22.1°F actual temp one model had.

Monday I go out to get a repeat MRI on my foot. I suppose I should have gotten gas when I was out on Thursday, a lovely day. But I figured to go out Friday afternoon so I wouldn't have to do it Monday morning. At 2pm I checked the weather and there was a winter weather advisory starting at 3pm, so out I went. Though the temperature was 21°F there was a very icy cold steady wind. I have two winter coats, one I wear for much of the winter and also as a raincoat, though it's a bit warm. The big blue parka, though, is for serious weather.

Friday was probably only the second time I had to wear the blue parka this winter. But getting it on at the gas station, well... Given the blood thinners I'm on, I feel the cold so much more these days, especially in my hands. The blue parka is a little unwieldy anyway, and one of its Velcro straps latched onto the carpeting on the open driver's door -- which explained why I couldn't hike the coat up and find the left sleeve. (grin) When I got home there were big flakes in large numbers coming down, so I took a picture with the N2020 from the garage -- often the finer snows just don't show up well on the digital cameras.

By 4pm the snow was picking up and every time I glanced out the window, visibility was getting worse. Total snow volume was low, just a lot of air with snow blowing around. By the time I went to bed around 4pm, after a very productive ~5000 word writing day, it was still 24°F.

Snow started up around 11am. Just now Weather Channel on the web says it's 9°F with winds 24mph, gusting to 35 -- wind chill running about -12°F. And then came the ruckus outside. We were getting plowed. I grabbed the Kindle Fire HD and took a quick picture:

Not sure who has a white pickup with a blade... oh wait. (Click on photo for larger.)
©2015 Dr. Philip Edward Kaldon (All Rights Reserved)

We've been very grateful to our neighbors to the west and south, who each have John Deere lawn tractors -- one with a blade and one with a snow thrower attachment. When the one neighbor's machine was broken, we did get plowed by a pickup last January by a neighbor of a neighbor (DW). But in doing my research that was a blue pickup, not a white one. And it's not the same blade. So now I don't know who our Good Samaritan was.

You could argue that it's overkill -- we're only talking about four inches or so by now. But it's good to start with a clear base and it is going to get colder, so I can appreciate getting out now and doing some plowing.

I'm not going to argue with them. (double-trouble-grin)

It's a good weekend to stay home. And one of the recipes will be my father's sweet cabbage soup. Mrs. Dr. Phil is doing something in the kitchen involving a mixer right now. I don't know what's going on, but it's too much fun to not ask. Maybe there'll be beaters to lick. (triple-double-grin)

Realistically, it's nothing like we had in the U.P. Or the beating that Boston and Maine and New England has been getting.

Meanwhile, back to the YA trilogy. I killed someone off late last night. Good old Google -- I was able to find the exact intersection in a small town in Denmark I wanted using Google Maps satellite view. Important because it happens off-stage and I need a police detective to deliver the report. Perfect for Valentine's Day. (evil-writers-grin) Echo is playing the Saturday WGVU-FM NPR lineup -- This American Life followed by The TED Radio Hour -- and I've got my headphones on with a playlist playing.

This future in 2015? It's not so bad...

Dr. Phil

Posted on Dreamwidth
Crossposted on LiveJournal

I went to bed before 4am last night -- the snow had finally started and I could see from the front porch light that surfaces like the heat pump outside had a fine coating of white.

We watched it snow all day. Very fine, almost dry. But it was coming out of the east and at steep angles to the vertical -- this is never a good sign.

Then came the incomplete reports that Detroit area schools were starting to close for Monday. And the snow over Chicago had stalled -- some areas up to two feet already -- and "Heather, it's still snowing." Chicago schools closed.

A message Mrs. Dr. Phil got on Facebook said that Western and Eastern were both closed. Sure enough, a check of Western Michigan University -- the university that never closes -- had pulled the plug first, sometime before 9:30pm Super Bowl Sunday night:



I had been betting that WMU might close before Grand Valley -- last night's forecast had Kalamazoo and areas along I-94 and south getting more snow than along I-96.

It's still snowing here, but is it a lot? Are the roads too slippery? Don't know. But GVSU did close the library at 6pm tonight. We'll see...

Dr. Phil

Posted on Dreamwidth
Crossposted on LiveJournal

Monday night watched MSNBC all evening to watch the pre-game coverage of Blizzard '15, aka Winter Storm Juno. Buffalo was yawning at predictions of up to 26" of snow in some places east of them. Not after eight feet in a similar timeline just some weeks ago.

So let's review:

Global Warming does NOT mean no snow or cold
Weather is NOT Climate
Weather Forecasts are NOT Prophecies
Predictions are NOT Certainties
Accuracy is NOT Precision
Weather Forecasts are NOT Weather Control

But they got it wrong, some whine. New York was not buried!

So?

The forecasts are wrong a lot!

Okay, let's think about this. One of the reasons why forecasts are off is that we have more of them. I frequently on this blog mock storm forecasts that never materialize, but that's more mocking the We Are ALL Going to DIE coverage by the media. Storm Center 8. Severe Weather Center 3. These are just two of our Grand Rapids TV stations. And it's still Severe Weather Center 3 when the forecast is for sunny and 60°F.

I put The Weather Channel app on my Kindle Fire HD. Right now, if I were to turn it on, it'd not only give me a 10-day forecast, but for the first day or two it'd give me hour-to-hour forecasts. Now with that many forecasts, isn't it reasonable that some of them are going to be off? And predicting the exact track and production of a storm from two weeks out... the science gives you some idea, but not the same as weather on the ground when it comes.

As it should be.

And let's not forget, this morning there were still reports of 78mph winds in Nantucket. And Boston did get clobbered. And New York? Although we heard apologies from the mayor and the National Weather Service, frankly, I think it's a lot of hooey. This was the forecast, they had information from several days out and decided to clear the streets and highways and skies and rails ahead of time, so that people wouldn't get stuck or wrecked and need rescuing, either in the heart of the storm or just when the crews were needed to move this shit out of the way. NPR this afternoon pointed out that with airlines canceling so many thousands of flights, it left equipment in place, rather than diverting it or out of position, so when things start up again everything will be in the right place at the right time.

For gosh sakes they showed snowplows in one coastal town plowing a little snow -- and sea water off the streets from the storm surge. This is not an everyday or trivial event.

We don't have climate control. I don't know that we want climate control, because like the Mississippi River and other giant things we try to control, Nature will try to force things back and we won't like it. Making a nice day for a picnic here, might create a hurricane over there instead. I learned that from A Wizard of Earthsea. (grin) Systems and the interactions between systems. This is big stuff.

But the Farmer's Almanac gets it right and they just use a secret formula!

The Old Farmer's Almanac tells you they get it right. And I seem to recall some studies that suggest they do okay. But see, their specialties are broad regions and broad time periods. The upper Midwest will see dry conditions early in the fall but expect big storms by November -- or something. They might very well be right or mostly right, based on their secret sauce formula that uses past performance to predict broad future behaviors. But it ain't telling you what Friday's weather in Grand Rapids MI AND Bangor ME will be, and certainly not the 11am and 2pm forecasts on those days.

The old joke about weather forecasting is that the "best" forecast is predicting the same thing for today as yesterday -- it'll be right about half the time. Since many weather patterns persist for a few days, you can see how this works. And it's self-correcting, if you update each day. But predicting the same weather every day for a week, a month, a season, a year -- why you'd end up with a forecast that says rain and 57°F every afternoon. And by gum, you'd be right sometimes. But more likely in October or May, than July or February.

If you think weather forecasting is complicated and requires massive supercomputer models, just imagine what weather control would take.

You want to know what weather control looks like? It's clouds rolling in at 11:55am on Friday, light rain at 2:02pm, followed by heavy rain from 3:17pm to 4:42pm. Why? So workers won't want to cut out early on a Friday. THAT's what you'd get for paying for weather control in the real world.

I'll stick with looking at the computer models, hoping for the best -- and trying to not have to drive in impossible conditions. 4WD and modern roads are not invincible combinations.

Dr. Phil

Posted on Dreamwidth
Crossposted on LiveJournal

A Welcome Relief

These last two weeks have been one wild adventure in commuting after another. Snow. Ice. Torrential rains. Flooding. Dense fog. Tuesday the temps approached 60°F, whereas last Wednesday started at 0°F and got all the way up to 19°F. Yesterday it was still above 50°F at midnight, in the mid-40s by morning and snowing by evening.

The big concern for today, the last day of January 2013, was the layer of ice under the sideways blowing snow. Naturally I had scheduled Friday as Exam 1 Day. The new wrinkle this year? Instructors are no longer allowed to cancel classes. That decision has to be made at higher pay grades.

But at 6:10am I turned on the TV and Channel 3 was doing the Kalamazoo County school closings. Kalamazoo Valley Community College was closed for the second time this week -- they are just outside of town in a really exposed, isolated site. But above that line was Just In: Western Michigan University CLOSED. So I booted the computer and started updating webpages.



I probably could've gotten to K-zoo okay -- MDOT seems to have done a bang up job, so to speak, in drying off the freeways by morning. But I'm assuming that the regular streets and roads down south were all bad. It's not great here, but I think it was worse last week.

Adventures in driving indeed. Snow Day. Western never closes. (grin)

Dr. Phil

Under The Heading Category Of Things I Can Do Because I Can

This morning the clouds suddenly blew away and as we were downstairs with the Sunday paper, the sky outside became blue and brilliant sunshine blazed in. Alas, before I'd finished today's Sudoku, I realized that to the north that a gray haze and cloud layer had blown in. Soon the sunlight faded and we were in gray clouds to the south as well, with only patchy sunlight.

Too bad, because I was going to shoot some pictures of the white-white snow frosting on the green pine trees with the brilliant blue sky. Not to be. But when we did get upstairs, the sun came out enough that I opened the sliding door and screen door -- SCREE-EEECH! "What is going on out there?" -- and shot some pictures of our back yard and beyond, with this dark gray cloud background.

And when I was uploading the pictures off the Compact Flash card, I realized I could play.


The Amazing Monochromatic Winter Color Scene -- Supersized For Your Enjoyment (Click on photo for larger.)

It's three pictures taken with a normal lens (Nikon D1 and 35-70mm lens at 35mm). Not even a proper panoramic shot -- I'd have done five if I'd planned it -- and not stitched together with any panoramic program, especially because there's a gap between the 2nd and 3rd shots. Told you it was unplanned. Just edited together to give you a sense.

Not nearly as dramatic as the stuff Jim Wright puts on Stonekettle Station from Alaska, but then I'm workin' with what I've got -- which in this stretch of West Michigan is what you see. (grin)

I crack myself up sometimes.

Dr. Phil

Pictures Or It Didn't Happen

I wrote about the first storm of the semester (DW) -- here's some pictures I shot.

Getting Out Of The Driveway


(Click on photo for larger.)


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South on M-11 Wilson Avenue


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I love the cold gray blue steel colors.

Dr. Phil

Well-llll, We Knew This Wouldn't Last

Wednesday the high in Kalamazoo was around 50°F. Gas was $3.44.9/gal in the morning -- and $3.69.9 in the afternoon. What could cause a 25¢ jump in price? Um, maybe the storm coming Thursday night? (evil grin)

Still in the upper 30s, low 40s during much of Thursday. Foggy. Light rain. By the time I was starting to head out, before 5pm, it was snowing in K-zoo. But heading north it was more hazy and raining. Or at least too warm for the snow falling which immediately turned to wet. It wasn't until I'd left I-196 and was on Wilson and M-45, heading west to Allendale, that it began to snow for me.

Tonight the roads were reported to be icy and slippery -- lots of slide offs. There's a diagonal lake effect snow band predicted to run from Grand Haven/Holland down to Kalamazoo, with 6-12" of snow overnight. Now that's not much for some, or even here. But it's the first significant snow of the so-called Spring Semester and I don't think anyone is really ready for it.

Sigh. Should be "fun" driving in the morning.

It Has Begun

Took a picture of our driveway as I came in tonight, an experiment in a three second handheld shot, then processed the hell out of it in Ulead PhotoImpact 5, an ancient program, just to see what I got. Can't really tell that the driveway just is covered and that any tracks that Mrs. Dr. Phil made within the last hour were gone. The falling snow didn't show up at all, not with that long shutter. (grin)


3 seconds, handheld, ISO 200 (Click on photo for more detail.)

I probably should've reset the ISO higher, but on a D1 that generates a lot of noise, and I could've zoomed out to 35mm, but hey, it's interesting. Surprised that sitting in a car with the engine running that it's as "good" as it is. (big grin)

Dr. Phil

We Made It

First spring training game from Hohokam Park in Mesa AZ for the Cubbies on WGN. (Cubs ahead 1-0 over Dodgers after 1st inning.)

It's a lovely sunny day here in West Michigan today, too. So glad I arrived home on Friday night, because Saturday evening deteriorated into a sloppy snow/rain/freezing sliding mess. Left us with a nice clean white coating on the older snow, so it is very pretty now.

Next signs of spring? Daylight Savings Time (Revised) next weekend. And then March Madness and the NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball marathons.

Dr. Phil

7am Sunday to 7am Monday... Or Not

Big winter storm warning. North of us will likely get a foot or so. But West Michigan is looking at temps hovering right around freezing, so we're expecting snow, freezing rain, ice and sleet. By morning, we could have ¾" of ice.

We had no snow or precip at 7am, 8am, 10am or 11am. Sometime after noon heavy snow globe type snow began. And within ten minutes the ground was covered in white after being brown yesterday.

The worst part of this is not knowing what the commute will be like. Not that This Is Teh Worst Storm Evah.

The Warm And The Cold Of It

Our warm-up peaked last week at around 56°F. Yesterday was upper 30s but sunshine all day. Pretty much got rid of most of the snow. Interesting last weekend to look at the reports of the record lows from 1899. Thursday, Friday, Saturday, the lows that year were -33°F, -29°F and -22°F. What makes this somewhat remarkable is that the Weather Channel is currently giving us the stats from Grand Haven MI, which is on Lake Michigan. The lake usually moderates the temps, so I would imagine that this must've been an arctic blast coming down out of the north or northeast, instead of across the lake.

Of course, don't imagine that record -33°F lows in 1899 and +56°F highs in 2011 on the same few days are indicative of anything in particular about global warming. One set of cherry picked data points is about weather, not climate.

One does have remind people about this from time to time, in either direction. (grin)

Dr. Phil

As We Waited...

It occurred to me that John might not have the house phone number, that I'd pulled his cell number on my cellphone, and that I normally turn my cellphone off when I am not using it -- I'm sure that's a horror story right there for most people younger than us. (grin) So I turned my phone back on and an hour later, John called. He wasn't going to be able to come and do my driveway, after all, but he'd called Sikkema & Sons and they'd do the job with a backhoe for the same price. Understandable that he had to cancel, he'd been working at plowing out at the airport. But nice of him to arrange for a replacement!

Called Terry Sikkema and he said sure, but he was going to eat dinner first. Fine, no problem -- no one had to drive out until around 7:50am anyway. Gave him our landline number. A few minutes later, phone rang. Apparently Mrs. Sikkema figured he should do the job while the waning light was still there and said she'd slow down dinner. (double-grin)

And A Short Time Later...


Here comes the backhoe!


Don't worry about the snapping of those dry branches -- they're scrub trees anyway and we have to keep hacking the branches back from the driveway anyway. Used to having branches break from trucks and gear heavier than a Blazer or a Bravada. (triple-snap-grin)


There is nothing like having the right tool for the job, and an artist who can wield said tool with precision.


And as the sun sets...

... we are freed from our icy prison. If we so wish. Fifty dollars well spent.

Dr. Phil