dr_phil_physics: (darth-winslet)
I've never owned a VW -- or an Audi or a Porsche -- nor have I ever driven one. But there's no denying the influence it has had over many generations.

The VW Beetle became a symbol of students, counterculture and nascent Yuppies. The Thing. The Carmen Ghia. The Rabbit. The New Beetle.

FWD Rabbits could deal with U.P. winters and hundreds flocked the 100+ miles from Houghton to Marquette MI to buy one.

Diesel Rabbits could get 50 mpg. FIFTY. Both car and pickup truck.

I daresay the Rabbit proved to a skeptical American public that there would be life with cars after the oil embargoes and CAFE standards. And a whole lotta economy cars which came out, looked vaguely like the Rabbit/Golf. And then they went and put a trunk on it.

The White Plains PD had Fuzz Bugs, Beetles with lights and so much gear they topped out at 45 mph. And the Greensboro NC PD had the Fuzz Bunnies -- preliminary versions of the Wulfsburg/GTI Rabbit/Golf -- which could run down cars at over 140 mph.

And now this... It's not a scandal, it is fraud. I am not sure how VW can survive this.

-- They rigged their diesel cars for years to disable the antipollution gear, except during emissions testing.

-- They dumped NO2 and other gasses into the air at up to forty times the maximum rate.

-- 11 million vehicles in the U.S.? Exactly how are they going to "fix" these? And when they do...

-- The lawsuits for not delivering the performance they were sold, particularly when their VWs run with less pep after they are "fixed", are going to be legendary.

-- Their stock, valued at $80B last week, slid by 33%, though they are "only" down 29% now.

-- And Europe is even more invested in clean diesel. It took until Monday before I heard that France and Germany are investigating, too.

How many people knew about this? I mean, I usually go around and blame corporate stupidity on the middle managers, trying to justify their existence. And aceing the pollution tests while delivering performance the rest of the time? It's a dream come true. But this dates back far enough, those turkeys may actually be gone from the company.

And then there's the testing bit. How do the cars know they are being tested? Do you have to plug into the car's computer? Do you flip a switch? Do you only allow the testing to be done at authorized VW and Audi dealers? In which case, how many of them are in the scam?

Make no mistake about this. This is not an accident. This is not a design flaw. This is not an error which couldn't be factored in because the cars are lasting beyond their expected lifetime. Nope. This is deliberately trying to game the system.

Who is going to trust VW/Audi again? Who is going to paint suspicion on ALL diesel manufacturers? Hint: it's already happening. I've heard twice about people wondering if BMW diesels are crooked, too, or even as far as "of course they are crooked." If I was BMW, I'd sue VW.

I'm old enough to remember the early Mercedes diesel cars from the 60s and 70s. They were sooty, to be sure, but Mercedes was working on them. And in the early 70s they actively campaigned to get diesel pumps put in car gas stations in the U.S. -- and published maps showing where you could find diesel pumps outside of a truck stop.

The brother of a friend of mine worked on the development of the antipollution/soot gear put in some of the big rig diesel engines. I like diesels. Today's diesel cars have great performance and... and...

And VW has sunk diesels back at least twenty years, if not more, in the U.S. and world markets.

What a bunch of crooks.

And stupid? They were SO clever to come up with their cheat, that they never thought about the consequences of when their fraud was discovered -- and it WAS going to be discovered one day.

Assholes.

Dr. Phil
Posted on Dreamwidth
Crossposted on LiveJournal
dr_phil_physics: (Default)
Here's The Hollywood Version

Imagine that you have access to a decent telescope. That even though you're just a school kid, you identify a new asteroid or comet. Later this object is found to be on a collision course with the Earth. OMG We're All Going To Die! (Deep Impact)

Of course interplanetary space is lousy with asteroids and comets. Indeed, an astronomy course at Calvin College in Grand Rapids requires its students as part of the course's lab to locate a previously unknown asteroid. Amateurs can definitely be a part of astronomy -- and have for a long time. And really, if there is a killer asteroid or comet heading our way -- and a couple of years ago we discovered a large asteroid AFTER it passed between the Earth and the Moon -- we have no good way of stopping it, so We're Really All Going To Die!

Imagine that you're a law school student and you uncover a conspiracy involving big oil, environmental damage... and the assassination of two Supreme Court justices. OMG Our Very Freedoms Are Being Bought And Sold And We're All Going To Die! (The Pelican Brief)

While law school students are not yet lawyers, they are hardly legal amateurs either. Not only are they expected to be able to do research and write briefs, it is expected that many will write important legal opinions in law review and get clerkships to judges and legislators -- thereby helping to make our very laws. Indeed, it has been the research of law students at Northwestern and other law schools which have investigated the flaws in the application of the death penalty in this country, or championed the use of new DNA analysis technology to solve old cases and clear the innocent. And if two Supremes really were assassinated, I think the word about a real conspiracy would come out. Too many people in the investigation and too many people who still think that Constitutional law is a Good Thing.

Or consider a physics grad student who solves a thorny problem of hydrogen resonant "bubble" fusion, only to find himself on the run from a killer thug secret agency project that doesn't want the secrets of powerful, clean energy sources to ruin the economy of the rich people. OMG They Killed Kenny! You Bastards! We're All Going To Die! (Chain Reaction)

First of all, physics grad students and post-docs are expected to discover things. For some, it's the most productive years of their research careers. They are hardly amateurs, even though they still have lots to learn. Discovering a new energy source or a vastly cleaner method isn't the end of the world to business. Even if 100 mpg cars were actually possible, for reasonable family and commuter vehicles as we use them now, it would take decades to turn such an invention into a real car, make it safe and reliable, then put into production and have it dominate the automobile market. And even if 100 mpg cars were for sale now, not everyone would buy one. Why? Because of costs. Gas is, relatively speaking, still cheap. If you have a car that gets 25 mpg now, how much money would you save per month if you cut that figure by a factor of four. Would three-quarters of your current monthly gasoline bills equal a new car payment? Probably not. This is why "everyone" is not buying 40-50 mpg hybrids now -- there's a premium cost for hybrid technology and for the most part you buy a hybrid because you want to buy a hybrid. And most of those buying hybrids now would have bought similarly sized nice smaller cars in the first place, had the hybrids not been available. So the conspiracy notion is odd, though not impossible. But it makes for a helluva chase movie.

What's Missing From This Equation

The difference between the Hollywood version and Real Life is the role of experts. We depend on experts in their field every day for so many things. It is the experts who are in part our gatekeepers to keep the madness out of our lives. This doesn't mean that experts all agree or they don't make mistakes. But there comes a time when a confluence of experts form a consensus opinion and we move on.

Oh, and who is an expert? An expert is someone who has the knowledge, education, experience, credentials and recognition in their field of expertise. While the first four are part of your resumé, the last is an acknowledgment of your peers. Self-appointed experts need not apply.

It is not likely that amateurs, and especially amateurs with grandiose notions and visions of conspiracies everywhere, are going to come up with something to challenge the combined opinions of the experts. Not impossible, mind you, which is good policy and good science, but unfortunately give certain whacko fringe amateurs the green light to proceed. We want to believe that a Ben Affleck really can crash a Presidential meeting and reveal his contrary analysis and save us from idiots wanting to blow up the world. (The Sum of All Fears)*** But that isn't really going to happen. And so far, we're still here.

Common sense and rational thought eventually persevere. Whew. It was close there for a minute. But not OMG It's The End Of The World! If some amateur really does have the secret to a disaster and the experts disagree, then I guess we're screwed. But I like the odds, so I can live with it.

Dr. Phil

*** OMG, Morgan Freeman is in THREE of the FOUR films I mentioned. It's A Conspiracy! We're All Going To Die!

Profile

dr_phil_physics: (Default)
dr_phil_physics

April 2016

S M T W T F S
     1 2
3 4567 89
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930

Links

Email: drphil at

dr-phil-physics.com

Syndicate

RSS Atom

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Sunday, 15 March 2026 17:49
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios